Weather and summit success on Denali: Evidence from daily weather data

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between daily weather conditions and daily summit success on Denali, the highest peak in North America, using data from the 2015 to 2023 climbing seasons. Combining hand collected Field Report data with hourly observations from the 14,200 foot camp weather station, the highest station operating on the mountain during this period, we construct a measure of new summits per day as a percent of registered climbers and test its association with temperature, wind speed, and calendar date. Higher temperatures at 14,200 foot camp are associated with significantly higher summit success rates across all model specifications, while higher wind speeds show a weaker and less consistent negative association once calendar controls are included. Time based variables, including a quadratic specification and semi monthly and weekly dummies, explain substantially more of the variance in summit success than weather alone, with predicted summit success peaking in early to mid June. These findings suggest that while weather conditions at high camp meaningfully influence daily summit outcomes, private and guided expeditions can improve their odds of success by scheduling attempts for early June, well before reliable short range weather forecasts become available. This is the first study to analyze daily weather data alongside daily summit success rates on Denali.