Trade disruption and supply chain vulnerability in Bangladesh amid Iran and Israel geopolitical tensions

Abstract

Escalating geopolitical tension between Iran and Israel threatens global energy trade and the maritime corridors on which import dependent economies rely. This study examines how that tension affects trade flows and energy supply chain systems in Bangladesh, with attention to vulnerability, economic consequences, and preparedness. A mixed methods design combined a structured survey of 400 energy sector professionals drawn from consulting, supply, trade, logistics, renewable energy, and government roles with secondary data on fuel and liquefied natural gas imports, infrastructure condition, and shipping interruption. One sample t tests, Pearson correlations, and Bayesian posterior estimation were used to assess supply chain risk and resilience strategies. Results indicate heavy dependence on imported energy, with mean annual petroleum and liquefied natural gas imports of 5.395 and 3.653 million tonnes respectively. Infrastructure vulnerability and disruption at key maritime chokepoints each averaged close to 3.0 on a five point scale, indicating moderate systemic risk. Correlations among fuel price volatility, import cost increase, energy inflation, and government contingency planning were weak and statistically nonsignificant, as was the association between private sector risk management and stockpile levels, suggesting limited coordination between market signals and policy response. Posterior estimates show that supply diversification, renewable integration, infrastructure strengthening, and strategic reserve expansion operate largely independently of one another, implying complementary rather than substitutable measures. The findings support coordinated investment in infrastructure, greater policy responsiveness, and stronger private sector capacity to safeguard trade continuity.